NJ Gov: New polling data: Christie holds lead over Corzine despite scandal

New polling data in the New Jersey governor's race, taken after the revelation of the illegal loan made by Christie to a colleague:

. . . despite Corzine’s increasingly aggressive efforts over the past month, Christie has actually widened his advantage to 10-points over the incumbent governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Christie leads Corzine among likely voters 47 percent to 37 percent in the poll, taken from August 25-30. A Quinnipiac poll in early August showed Christie with a six-point lead.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll also out on Tuesday showed Christie holding on to a 5 point lead — 47 to 42 percent — over Corzine, roughly the same margin as a poll taken by the university in July.

Christie, a former federal prosecutor, has faced scrutiny in recent weeks on a variety of issues, including failing to disclose a $46,000 loan he made in 2007 to a colleague at the United States attorney’s office in New Jersey, racking up 13 tickets on his personal driving record since 1985 and discussing the possibility of running for governor with top White House aide Karl Rove in 2006 while still a U.S. attorney.

I wrote on this over a week ago and I predicted that the loan scandal (which I hearby dub "Loaner-gate") would not really make a big difference. So far, it turns out that I was right (again).

A Democratic consultant is quoted in the article as saying, "The governor needs to complete the sentence, ‘Jon Corzine should be reelected because—, . . . He has not quite closed the deal, but he has two months to do it.” This is a good take on Corzine's situation and he would be wise to take this advice. It isn't enough to point out why your opponent is unfit to be governor. He needs to tout the positive aspects of his record and give New Jersey voters a reason to give him another shot. This is part of the trap that McCain's camp fell into last fall, when they simply attacked Obama for the last couple of months leading up to the election. As a result, there was little room for McCain to get out his own positive, policy-driven message to the American people.

I would also speculate that the conflict-oriented media is going to give much more airtime to your attacks on your opponent than your plans for your constituents. Attacks are often important and useful, but you don't want to risk drowning out your positive message.

One final thought. A possible reason why Corzine's attacks don't seem to be sticking is that the governor has a record of scandals of his own. With Corzine's scandal sheet, he looks very desperate when he attacks Christie over parking tickets.